Hey everyone, Pho here from phocrypto.com I’ve been trading XRP since the days it was under ten cents, so trust me when I say the current setup feels painfully familiar: tons of hype, new institutional products hitting the market… and the price still getting absolutely hammered.
As of November 21, 2025, XRP is hugging the bottom of its recent range, trading right around the $2.05–$2.10 zone after yet another failed attempt to reclaim $2.16–$2.20. The Bitwise spot XRP ETF officially started trading on NYSE today (0.34% fee, waived for the first month on the first $500M), but so far the market reaction has been a big fat shrug.
The Chart Is Screaming “Distribution”
On the 4-hour timeframe, everything looks heavy:
- Price below the short-term EMA
- Below the Bollinger Band midline
- Multiple hard rejections at the 0.382 Fib ($2.16)
- Strong supply overhead at $2.34 and $2.52
Right now we’re compressing in a tightening wedge just under that 0.382 level. I’ve seen this movie before – these compressions under key Fibs almost always resolve with a violent move. The only question is direction.
Key levels I’m watching:
Bull case (needs conviction): → Flip $2.16 with volume → retest $2.34–$2.52 supply → clear that = $2.70–$2.77 possible (0.786 Fib + higher-timeframe resistance)
Bear case (current path of least resistance): → Lose $2.05–$2.06 decisively → $1.94 (0.236 Fib) → $1.58 full retrace of the entire impulse wave
Leverage Is Getting Washed Out – Fast
Open interest peaked above $8 billion during the rally earlier this year. Today it sits at ~$3.79 billion. That’s a massive unwinding of leveraged longs. Usually when OI drops this hard while price is correcting, it means the weak hands are getting rinsed and we’re close to some kind of capitulation.
Spot flows remain ugly too – consistent outflows all year, including another $21.6M out on November 20 when price was ~$2.12. Defensive positioning at its finest.
The ETF Narrative Is Real… But Timing Is Everything
Bitwise’s launch is legitimately huge. It’s the first proper XRP spot ETF on NYSE, fee is competitive, and it opens the door for institutions who couldn’t touch the asset before.
But here’s the thing I keep telling people: ETFs don’t magically reverse downtrends on day one. Look at what happened with the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs – initial flows were decent, but price still dumped hard before the real money showed up months later.
Same script could easily play out here. If XRP can hold $2.05 long enough for real institutional accumulation to kick in, we could see a monster squeeze higher. If not, the support cracks first, the ETF launch will just be another “sell the news” event.
My Personal Take Right Now
I’m sitting mostly in cash on XRP.
The risk/reward below $2.05 feels terrible – too much downside to $1.94/$1.58.
Above $2.16 with expanding volume I’d start scaling in aggressively, because once that $2.34–$2.52 zone breaks, the path to $2.70+ opens fast and the shorts will get destroyed.
Until we get a daily close back above $2.16, I remain cautiously bearish to neutral. The chart is compressed, leverage is flushing, flows are negative – classic setup for one more leg down before the real reversal.
Quick FAQ
What is XRP? XRP is the native token of the Ripple payment protocol, designed for fast, cheap cross-border settlements.
Why is XRP still dropping even with an ETF? Heavy distribution from early 2025 leveraged longs + consistent spot selling. New ETFs take time to absorb supply.
Will the Bitwise ETF save XRP? It dramatically improves the long-term outlook, but short-term it’s just another catalyst the market can sell. We need to see sustained inflows + price holding key support first.
That’s where we stand today. I’ll be watching the $2.05–$2.06 zone like a hawk this weekend. If it holds into next week and we start seeing OI rebuild from the long side, I’ll be buying aggressively.
